Explanation
What it is
The Cynefin Framework is not a step-by-step method but a categorisation tool for sensemaking.
It sets out five domains — simple, complicated, complex, chaotic, and disorder — each representing a different relationship between cause and effect.
Rather than prescribing actions, it provides leaders with a lens to diagnose context and choose decision-making approaches that fit the nature of the situation.
N.B. Disorder represents the state of not yet knowing which domain applies — the fog before sensemaking begins.
When to use it
- When your team is uncertain which kind of problem they face (Disorder).
- When facing uncertainty or rapid change and needing to diagnose the type of problem.
- When an organisation struggles to decide between best practice, expert analysis, or experimentation.
- When leaders need to align decision-making approaches with the complexity of the environment.
Why it matters
By clarifying the nature of a situation, the Cynefin Framework helps avoid misapplied solutions — such as treating a complex challenge as if it were simple.
It improves organisational adaptability, resilience under stress, and the ability to frame meaning in uncertainty, ultimately driving more effective outcomes in speed, quality, alignment, and risk management.
Every sensemaking journey begins in Disorder; Cynefin provides a path out of that ambiguity into more actionable domains.
Reference
Definitions
Cynefin
A Welsh word meaning “habitat” or “place of multiple belongings”; used by Snowden to signal the complex, contextual nature of decision-making.
Sensemaking Framework
A categorisation model that distinguishes five domains (simple, complicated, complex, chaotic, disorder) to align decision-making with context.
Complexity Science
An interdisciplinary field examining systems where cause-and-effect relationships are non-linear, emergent, and often unpredictable.
Canonical Sources
- Snowden, D. & Boone, M., A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making, Harvard Business Review, 2007
- Snowden, D., Cynefin: Weaving Sense-Making into the Fabric of Our World, Cognitive Edge, 2021
- Kurtz, C.F. & Snowden, D.J., The New Dynamics of Strategy: Sense-making in a Complex and Complicated World, IBM Systems Journal, 2003
- Snowden, D., The Cynefin Mini-Book, 2015
Notes & Caveats
- Cynefin is often misinterpreted as a maturity model; it is explicitly a sensemaking framework, not a stepwise progression.
- Boundaries between domains are porous, and contexts may shift dynamically (e.g., ordered to chaotic under stress).
- Critics caution against over-formalisation: Cynefin’s value lies in framing ambiguity, not delivering “answers.”
How-To
Objective
Enable leaders and teams to correctly diagnose the type of situation they face and apply an appropriate decision-making approach aligned with the Cynefin domains.
Steps
- Identify the situation
Gather observations without forcing assumptions of (Dis)order. - Map the context to a domain
Assess whether the problem is simple, complicated, complex, or chaotic (timebox: short diagnostic session). - Select the appropriate response
Choose best practice (simple), expert analysis (complicated), probe–sense–respond (complex), or act–sense–respond (chaotic). - Verify alignment
Check whether outcomes improve; if not, re-map as the context may have shifted.
Tips
- Use visual aids (e.g., Cynefin diagrams or canvases) to make sense collectively.
- Reassess regularly — contexts evolve, especially under pressure.
Pitfalls
Treating complex problems as complicated
Resist the urge to over-analyse; instead run safe-to-fail experiments.
Assuming domains are fixed
Facilitate ongoing monitoring; contexts may drift or collapse suddenly (e.g., into chaos).
Acceptance criteria
- Team agrees on the domain classification and rationale.
- Decision-making approach is explicitly recorded (e.g., in a playbook or meeting log).
- Observable improvements in alignment, speed, or resilience are evident in follow-up reviews.
Tutorial
Scenario
A leadership team in a healthcare organisation faces an unexpected surge in patient admissions (Disorder).
Resources are stretched, and they need to decide quickly whether to apply standard protocols, consult experts, or improvise under uncertainty.
Walkthrough
Decision Point
The team must determine if this is a routine demand spike (simple), a resourcing puzzle (complicated), or a fundamentally unpredictable surge with emergent risks (complex/chaotic).
Input/Output
Inputs:
Real-time hospital data, staff availability, and patient flow forecasts.
Outputs:
A mapped domain classification
(e.g., complex → probe-sense-respond).
Action
Facilitate a short sensemaking workshop using the Cynefin canvas. Capture insights on a shared board:
- If simple: apply standard operating procedures.
- If complicated: assign domain experts to redesign shift patterns.
- If complex: run safe-to-fail pilots (e.g., new triage flows) and observe outcomes.
- If chaotic: act decisively (e.g., open emergency overflow units), then stabilise.
Error handling
If initial classification proves wrong (e.g., treating complexity as complication), reconvene and re-map.
Shift response mode accordingly to prevent wasted effort or systemic failure.
Closure
Record the chosen domain, response strategy, and expected review interval.
Schedule a follow-up to check whether the situation has shifted domains, and whether interventions are delivering results.
Result
- Before → After delta:
Reduced time-to-decision, improved alignment across leadership, lower risk of misapplied solutions, higher trust in adaptive capacity. - Artefact snapshot:
Cynefin Canvas stored in the organisation’s knowledge repository with annotations.
Variations
- If operating under political or public pressure, build in a communication step to explain why decisions differ across domains.
- If team size is small, replace workshops with lightweight canvases or digital polling tools to accelerate classification.